US Economy On The Brink Of A Recession: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist At Moody’s Analytics
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, has warned that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a recession, with a 49% probability of a downturn within the next 12 months, particularly vulnerable by late 2025 or early 2026. Key economic indicators signal trouble: job growth slowed to 73,000 in July 2025, far below expectations, with significant downward revisions to May and June payrolls, resulting in a three-month average of 35,000. Over 53% of industries are shedding jobs, with healthcare being the only sector showing significant growth. Consumer spending has flatlined, while construction and manufacturing sectors are contracting. Zandi attributes these challenges to rising U.S. tariffs, which are eroding corporate profits and household purchasing power, and restrictive immigration policies, which have reduced the foreign-born workforce by 1.2 million in six months, stalling labor force growth. Inflation, at a 2.8% core rate, exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, limiting its ability to cut rates. States representing nearly a third of U.S. GDP, particularly in the D.C. area due to government job cuts, are already in or at high risk of recession, while southern states show slowing growth. California and New York, crucial for over a fifth of GDP, remain stable but are critical to avoiding a national downturn. Despite these red flags, Zandi notes the economy is not yet in a recession, as persistent job declines over several months are required, but the trajectory suggests significant risks ahead.
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