In a detailed discussion on India’s vulnerability to the ongoing oil crisis, an economist warns that while India can weather a short-term conflict, a protracted war extending beyond April could severely damage the economy. The expert states: ‘If this spills over into June, July, August, and the state is not open by then, then the average price for this year goes to $130 a barrel,’ noting that every $10 increase represents a 0.5% GDP terms of trade shock. Three oil tankers have reached or are heading to India in the last 24 hours, offering initial relief. However, with India importing 60% of LNG and 80-90% of LPG from the Strait of Hormuz, the supply constraints remain critical. The discussion also covers the impact on multiple industries including aviation, fertilizer, and manufacturing, with experts emphasizing the need for increased domestic production, diversified supply sources, and strategic buffers to manage future shocks in an increasingly volatile global commodity market.
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