Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, warned that if the Iran conflict continues for four months, oil prices could reach 150 dollars a barrel with significant global economic consequences. Speaking to India Today, Wolf stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already disrupted tanker trade and could reduce world oil and gas exports by eight to nine percent. He said the conflict could reduce global GDP growth by 0.5 percent if prolonged. Wolf noted that oil-importing economies like India, China and Europe would be most affected, while net exporters like the United States would face milder impacts. He argued that Iran’s response was ‘completely and utterly predictable’ and questioned whether decision-makers in Washington had underestimated the economic fallout. Wolf suggested the conflict might accelerate investment in renewable energy among vulnerable importers seeking strategic independence from oil supply disruptions.
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