In an exclusive interview with India Today, Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist at Axis Bank and Head of Global Research at Axis Capital, analysed the economic fallout of the West Asia war and extreme crude oil volatility. Mishra explained that India imports approximately 1.8 billion barrels equivalent annually, noting that ‘every dollar increase’ in oil prices could result in a $2.5 billion impact on the Indian economy. He highlighted that a prolonged conflict could lead to a $100 billion hit to the terms of trade, affecting GDP, inflation, and currency stability. However, Mishra suggested the likelihood of the war lasting a full year is low, as high prices negatively affect other major economies like China and the US. He also discussed the cushioning effect of India’s six-to-eight-week energy buffer and the potential for inflationary pressures to build if the crisis extends into May or June. Mishra concluded that while market uncertainty is currently punishing risk assets, stability in oil prices would eventually reduce the sustained negative impact.
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