In an exclusive interview, Martin Wolf, Chief Economic Commentator of the Financial Times, analyzes the escalating US-Iran conflict and its catastrophic potential for the global economy. Wolf describes the current American strategy and rhetoric as horrifying, noting that the targeting of civilian infrastructure would constitute war crimes. He warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices soaring to $200 a barrel, triggering a massive inflationary shock. While acknowledging India’s vulnerability due to its high dependence on Gulf energy, Wolf suggests the Indian economy possesses some fiscal resilience and domestic saving capacity to manage the crisis. He highlights the lack of a clear strategic plan from the Trump administration and expresses concern that the world has entered a disruptive era where geopolitics consistently trumps geoeconomics. Wolf concludes by outlining a ‘worst-case’ scenario where the conflict mirrors the long-term attrition of the Ukraine war, but situated directly within the world’s most vital oil transit corridor.
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