In an exclusive interview with India Today, Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, provides a grim assessment of the escalating West Asia conflict. As the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches, Vaez suggests that ‘it’s very hard to be optimistic about the prospect of any kind of deal at this point.’ He explains that Tehran maintains a maximalist position, believing that a temporary ceasefire would only allow Israel and the US to regroup for future attacks. Vaez warns that if Trump carries out threats to decimate civilian infrastructure, Iran retains the capability to retaliate, potentially pushing oil prices above $250 per barrel and causing a global economic meltdown. He notes that the Iranian regime believes it can ‘endure much longer than the United States and Israel can,’ leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz to impose massive costs on the global economy while avoiding total capitulation.
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