This special report examines the feasibility of India pivoting away from Russian oil following claims made by US President Donald Trump during the announcement of a new India-US trade deal. The speaker notes that while the US suggests a shift toward American and Venezuelan crude, Russia remains India’s largest supplier, accounting for 30-35% of imports in 2024-2025. A critical point raised is that ‘Most crude purchases are governed by long-term supply contracts between Indian refiners and Russian producers, often running for several years.’ The report highlights that breaking these contracts would involve a complex ‘wind-down period’ and potential penalties. Furthermore, Indian refineries are specifically configured for the heavy, sour crude provided by Russia and Venezuela, making a sudden switch to lighter US crude logistically and economically challenging. While diversification is possible through sources in the Middle East and Africa, the transition would be a gradual process rather than an immediate ‘switch-off’ as suggested by Washington.
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