The India Today-Axis My India exit poll for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections indicates a razor-thin contest, projecting a narrow victory for the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is forecast to secure 121-141 seats, just ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by Tejashwi Yadav, which is predicted to win 98-118 seats in the 243-member assembly. This tight race is defined by a significant demographic split in voting patterns. Analysis reveals that a strong preference among women voters for the NDA is a potentially decisive factor, while the MGB has garnered substantial support from youth and the unemployed. Despite the NDA’s edge, Yadav’s RJD is projected to emerge as the single largest party. The complex caste arithmetic and the limited electoral impact of Prashant Kishor’s new Jan Suraj party are also key factors in this closely watched election.
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