Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, warned that the United States is entering an ‘escalation trap’ with Iran as it deploys elements of the 82nd Airborne Division and Marine Expeditionary Units to West Asia. He said the deployment marks ‘stage three’ of escalation, involving the beginning of ground operations. Pape predicted ‘six months of war of attrition’ once ground operations start, with both sides taking losses for months. He explained that despite tactical successes in targeting over 15,000 locations in Iran, strategic goals have not been met, and Iran now controls 20% of the world’s oil. Pape, a leading expert on suicide terrorism, also raised concerns about potential retaliatory attacks at American airports, noting that National Guard and ICE elements are being deployed alongside TSA. He emphasised that military war games often fail to account for complex political dynamics that emerge during real conflict.
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