The finance ministry has acknowledged early signs of economic slowdown due to the West Asia conflict in its monthly economic review for March. Chief Economic Advisor V Ananta Nageshwaran has warned of a considerable downside to his estimate for India’s GDP growth of 7 to 7.4% in FY27, after revising it 20 basis points higher just last month. He expects the combined impact of the conflict to be significant on India’s growth, inflation, fiscal and external balances. The review flags a possible spike in trade deficit in the new financial year beginning in two days. There is also a hint that the RBI may be forced to relook its monetary policy stance and go hawkish after having reduced interest rates by 125 basis points in four quarters. The government has relaxed rules for the use of kerosene for cooking and lighting in households, with designated petrol pumps in 21 states allowed to store and sell kerosene for 60 days. The RBI has capped bank offshore dollar positions at 100 million dollars, with banks required to cut open forex positions by 10th April.
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