An Axis My India exit poll for the 2025 Bihar Assembly election indicates a razor-thin contest, projecting a 43% vote share for the ruling NDA and 41% for the Mahagathbandhan alliance. This special report analyzes the tight race between the coalition led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the opposition headed by Tejashwi Yadav. The analysis reveals a significant demographic divide: the NDA holds an advantage with women voters, who turned out in record numbers, while the Mahagathbandhan leads among youth and the unemployed. The election is shaped by competing narratives—Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of jobs versus the lingering memory of the ‘Lalu Raj’ era, which may influence older voters. The role of smaller parties, including new entrant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party, is also examined as a potential factor in the final outcome, alongside the state’s complex caste arithmetic.
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