Ahead of assembly elections in four states, key factors emerge that could determine outcomes. In Kerala, the BJP’s vote share—which reached nearly 20 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections—becomes critical, as even a one per cent swing can shift 10 to 12 seats. Tamil Nadu presents a novelty factor with debutant Vijay polling over 20 per cent in pre-opinion surveys, potentially drawing votes from both the DMK and AIDMK. In Assam, upper Assam remains pivotal, with the BJP consolidating support through identity politics after delimitation. West Bengal sees anti-incumbency against the Mamata Banerjee government, with the outcome hinging on consolidation of opposition votes and retention of the Mahila and Muslim vote banks. Regional leaders including Mamata Banerjee, M.K. Stalin, Pinarayi Vijayan, and Gaurav Gogoi face a litmus test, while the Congress hopes for a Kerala comeback in the pendulum state.
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